A battery earns from price spreads — charge cheap, discharge dear, plus frequency response, Capacity Market and Balancing Mechanism. But the GB fleet is racing from ~12 GW to ~25 GW by 2030, and every new battery charges and discharges in the same hours — flattening the very spreads they all live on. That is cannibalisation, and forecasts that ignore it overstate 2030 revenue badly. A project financed on the naive number quietly breaches its covenants.
It solves the whole system in equilibrium — the future fleet, how every battery dispatches, and the resulting prices — all at once, until they are mutually consistent. The headline output is the bias: how far a naive, price-taker forecast overstates the realistic, cannibalisation-aware number. That single figure is what protects a financing decision.
The naive-vs-equilibrium gap, per scenario and year — the number a lender needs to see.
£/MW/yr split across wholesale arbitrage, frequency response, Capacity Market and BM.
NPV / IRR / DSCR against the 1.40× (P50) and 1.10× (P90) covenants, with P90/P50/P10 bands.
Appraise a candidate by location and duration; compare sites head-to-head; NPV tornado drivers.