Rules frozen before data, results published regardless — the public record.
CECadence's validation rules are pre-registered: each rule is frozen in a dated, committed protocol before the data it will be judged against is fetched, and the results are published whatever they say. This page is the public record of that discipline. The full protocol text — the exact rules, parameterisations and adjudication procedures — is part of the licensed diligence pack: request it at hello@compoundingenergy.com.
Every pre-registration below is a git commit in the product repository, made before the corresponding data fetch; a continuous-integration guard fails the build if held-out data appears without its pre-registration. On request we walk diligence teams through the commit history — timestamps and content hashes are not editable after the fact. And the record below includes failures and rejected model changes: a vendor curating its results would not publish these.
| Pre-registered rule | Frozen (commit · date) | Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 held-out validation year — every rule frozen before any 2025 backtest input was fetched | 8667ce5 · 2026-06-12 |
Measured FAIL published unmodified: annual mean +12.0% on the default basis vs the 5% target; the P95 scarcity tail fails in both profile modes |
| Scarcity-knee re-shape — adoption rule fixed before fitting | 623f126 · 2026-06-14 |
NOT ADOPTED under its own frozen rule (an honest negative) |
| Richer curve family (regime-scaled knee) | 838d3c2 · 2026-06-15 |
NOT ADOPTED — the pre-registered generalisation guard vetoed a clean-looking in-sample fit |
| Numerical-correctness audit — engine fixes adjudicated against the held-out record | 5a2f458 · 2026-06-15 |
Adjudicated held-out-safe; evidence regenerated, rules unchanged |
| Piecewise scarcity-tail rule | 8edaf0c · 2026-06-16 |
Fitted and NOT ADOPTED; the exercise localised the tail failure |
| Inner-knee re-shape | c9aca57 · 2026-06-17 |
NOT ADOPTED — the most informative negative in the record |
| Standing quarterly out-of-sample revenue grading (every new index quarter grades the frozen revenue parameterisation) | 7a60d5f · 2026-07-05 |
Pre-registered and standing; the first grades publish with the 2026Q2 index |
| Held-out 2026H1 price window — 13 season-stratified weeks, frozen checks | 7a60d5f · 2026-07-05 |
EXECUTED (7678204): window mean 1.4% PASS (90% CI 0.2–6.0% spans the 5% target — a fragile pass, disclosed as such), P50 23.0% FAIL, P95 55.6% FAIL — published unmodified |
| Six revenue-stack adoption rules — zonal-BM honesty (thin-zone shrinkage, two-leg structure with no-flattery checks), capacity-market walk refit, frequency-response demand trajectories, a dispatch-efficiency instrument, and a variance-refit data-gate — every rule frozen before any fitting code existed | 4ea6671 · 2026-07-06 |
EXECUTED: three ADOPTED under their frozen gates (zonal shrinkage + the two-leg BM structure — both lower or hold every Scottish-boundary value — and the capacity-market walk refit); three NOT ADOPTED under theirs (demand trajectories failed their own identification clamp; the dispatch-efficiency multiplier stays data-gated; the variance refit missed its fit gate by 0.005) — published either way |
Four re-shape attempts were pre-registered, fitted, and rejected under their own frozen adoption rules. The persistent P95 scarcity-tail failure is a data limit — one crisis year in the historical record — not a knob to be quietly tuned; the full diagnosis is in the held-out note, and the graded verdicts render live on the methodology tab alongside the measured CE GB BESS Index.
The complete document of record: frozen rule text and parameterisations, exact run plans, fuel-multiplier derivation rules, adjacency disclosures (what the model could have "seen"), the publication rule, and the appended measured results of every executed section. Signed-in users (free account included) can read the validation dossier and limitations register; email hello@compoundingenergy.com for the protocol walk-through.