Rules frozen before data, results published regardless — the public record.
CECadence's validation rules are pre-registered: each rule is frozen in a dated, committed protocol before the data it will be judged against is fetched, and the results are published whatever they say. This page is the public record of that discipline. The full protocol text — the exact rules, parameterisations and adjudication procedures — is part of the licensed diligence pack: request it at hello@compoundingenergy.com.
Every pre-registration below is a git commit in the product repository, made before the corresponding data fetch; a continuous-integration guard fails the build if held-out data appears without its pre-registration. On request we walk diligence teams through the commit history — timestamps and content hashes are not editable after the fact. And the record below includes failures and rejected model changes: a vendor curating its results would not publish these.
| Pre-registered rule | Frozen (commit · date) | Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 held-out validation year — every rule frozen before any 2025 backtest input was fetched | 8667ce5 · 2026-06-12 |
Measured FAIL published unmodified: annual mean +12.0% on the default basis vs the 5% target; the P95 scarcity tail fails in both profile modes |
| Scarcity-knee re-shape — adoption rule fixed before fitting | 623f126 · 2026-06-14 |
NOT ADOPTED under its own frozen rule (an honest negative) |
| Richer curve family (regime-scaled knee) | 838d3c2 · 2026-06-15 |
NOT ADOPTED — the pre-registered generalisation guard vetoed a clean-looking in-sample fit |
| Numerical-correctness audit — engine fixes adjudicated against the held-out record | 5a2f458 · 2026-06-15 |
Adjudicated held-out-safe; evidence regenerated, rules unchanged |
| Piecewise scarcity-tail rule | 8edaf0c · 2026-06-16 |
Fitted and NOT ADOPTED; the exercise localised the tail failure |
| Inner-knee re-shape | c9aca57 · 2026-06-17 |
NOT ADOPTED — the most informative negative in the record |
| Standing quarterly out-of-sample revenue grading (every new index quarter grades the frozen revenue parameterisation) | 7a60d5f · 2026-07-05 |
Pre-registered and standing; the first out-of-sample quarter (2026Q2) was computed 2026-07-20 and published as informational per the frozen convention — the graded test accrues over multiple quarters and, once started, is never restarted |
| Held-out 2026H1 price window — 13 season-stratified weeks, frozen checks | 7a60d5f · 2026-07-05 |
EXECUTED (7678204): synthetic window mean 1.4% PASS (90% CI 0.2–6.0% spans the 5% target — a fragile pass, disclosed as such), P50 23.0% FAIL, P95 55.6% FAIL — published unmodified. The realised-basis leg was NOT OBTAINABLE at execution (profile coverage below the frozen gate — the gap published verbatim, not papered over) and was completed 2026-07 under the same frozen rules once coverage crossed the gate: realised window mean 7.8% FAIL vs the 5% target, P50 26.3% FAIL, P95 54.5% FAIL — published straight |
| Six revenue-stack adoption rules — zonal-BM honesty (thin-zone shrinkage, two-leg structure with no-flattery checks), capacity-market walk refit, frequency-response demand trajectories, a dispatch-efficiency instrument, and a variance-refit data-gate — every rule frozen before any fitting code existed | 4ea6671 · 2026-07-06 |
EXECUTED: three ADOPTED under their frozen gates (zonal shrinkage + the two-leg BM structure — both lower or hold every Scottish-boundary value — and the capacity-market walk refit); three NOT ADOPTED under theirs (demand trajectories failed their own identification clamp; the dispatch-efficiency multiplier stays data-gated; the variance refit missed its fit gate by 0.005) — published either way |
| Fifth curve re-shape (regime-identified) — fitted at five windows, both executed held-out windows included | 600060b · 2026-07-19 |
NOT ADOPTED (measured same day, b071171): the candidates that fix the chronic hot tail break the crisis-year and precision-mean legs, so the frozen no-regression gate refused every one; the regime-width hypothesis was refuted. The registered unlock is a second genuine high-scarcity window |
| Dispatch-efficiency instrument re-adjudicated — the six-rules instrument re-run when newly pinned data made its measured leg computable | de5d7d0 · 2026-07-24 |
NOT ADOPTED (stability-gated): the gate's computability part now passes; its cross-quarter stability bound still fails — the instrument stays published and is applied to no revenue leg |
| 2026Q3 index re-basing — frozen rules, free data only, dual-published, never retroactive | 60c5c84 · 2026-07-23 |
Registered; applies at the 2026Q3 window advance |
| Model recalibration to the re-based index — frozen before any target exists to fit | be5e6a0 · 2026-07-23 |
Registered; executes at/after the 2026Q3 window advance |
| The living index — provisional series, strategy mix, per-asset publication | a42f055 · 2026-07-24 |
Registered before any series existed; executed — the provisional surfaces are live, additive and ungraded (the settled quarterly report remains the record) |
| Battery ageing on the bankable candidate track | 2e83bb4 · 2026-07-24 |
Registered before any implementation code existed; executed — the multi-year candidate track now ages the battery (conservative by construction, user-overridable) |
| FR structure — the auction-shaped response book | 32e1a01 · 2026-07-27 |
Registered; executes at/after the model recalibration above — deliberately not yet in code |
| CM leg — cleared where cleared, expected where not | df6ce85 · 2026-07-28 |
EXECUTED 2026-07-29: delivery years whose T-4 auctions have cleared now price at the final clearing prices (auction results are facts, not forecasts); beyond the cleared horizon the central line is the deterministic expectation of the frozen bounded walk — the former seeded realisation is gone |
Five re-shape attempts have been pre-registered, fitted, and rejected under their own frozen adoption rules. The persistent P95 scarcity-tail failure is a data limit — one crisis year in the historical record — not a knob to be quietly tuned; the registered unlock is a second genuine high-scarcity window. The full diagnosis is in the held-out note, and the graded verdicts render live on the methodology tab alongside the measured CE GB BESS Index.
The complete document of record: frozen rule text and parameterisations, exact run plans, fuel-multiplier derivation rules, adjacency disclosures (what the model could have "seen"), the publication rule, and the appended measured results of every executed section. Signed-in users (free account included) can read the validation dossier and limitations register; email hello@compoundingenergy.com for the protocol walk-through.